So Long, Suburbia!

There is strong evidence that the wave of the future in real estate and development will take a switch back turn in an entirely different direction during the next decade of recovery and progress. Project Staff and Senior Resident Fellow for the Urban Land Institute, John Mc Ilwain, reports in Housing in America: The Next Decade that we are in for a continued bumpy ride for the next two to three years and cautions against wishful thinking. Though home prices are stabilizing and even beginning to rise in many parts of the nation, home values overall face another ten percent decline while true stabilization is not predicted until 2011 (I suspect that 2011 may even be wishful thinking). The biggest obstacles to recovery continue to be high unemployment rates and toxic mortgages where principal balances are higher than the value of the homes. Mc Ilwain's report also posits that the private market financial system needs to be restored by removing government backed agencies (FHA, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Reserve) that are supporting nearly all housing financing in today's climate.

Most interesting, is the report's long term forecast that highlights emerging trends to expect as the recession dissipates and demand for housing returns. Aging baby boomers, Gen Y'ers, and immigrants will create the strongest demand for housing, though home ownership will retreat to levels not seen in twenty years. The rental markets will gain strength while demand for energy efficient, sustainable, urban living environments that provide a 24/7 lifestyle will begin to outpace the desire for suburban utopia.

Despite dire market conditions, we are beginning to see some renewed movement towards predicted urban growth trends here in Hollywood:

Madrone, a hip urban enclave of condos and retail space planned for the corner of La Brea Ave. & Hollywood Blvd. has been standing half finished and abandoned for nearly three years after the original builder filed bankruptcy. Finally, the project sold at a Trustee's Sale to the original equity partner last August, a new construction loan was secured, and hammers are swinging again as of early June. Once completed, the marketing plan for this 180-unit project will offer the units as rentals.

Just down the road on Vine St. and Hollywood Blvd., The Pali House Hotel (sister to Pali House Hotel in West Hollywood) has been salvaged by real estate developer, CIM Group, who purchased the construction loan and picked up the asset at auction after the original builder, Palisades Development, fell victim to pie-in-the-sky aspirations for the 67-key efficiency hotel. Now in presumably more capable hands, CIM Group has a vision of incorporating
the music legacy of the surrounding Capitol Records site into the design & marketing concept for Pali House. As the epicenter of urban development in Hollywood, any and all new growth emerging near the infamous corner of Hollywood Blvd. and Vine St. will be crucial in shaping the overall framework for smart growth in Los Angeles. Stay tuned!

Also, for you nostalgic foodies & bar rats out there, I will be hitting the streets in the upcoming weeks to uncover some of L.A.'s hidden and obscure treasures. I'll be avoiding all the flash-in-the-pan hot spots and instead will be focusing on vintage, old-school cool; where the place reeks of grease, history, and authenticity. I have a few in mind and more yet to be discovered, so please let me know if you have any in mind that are worth noting.

Finally, I am considering a 'just for fun' blog series to highlight the most eligible bachelors in L.A. Real Estate. I already have a candy box full of a few in mind, so drop me a line if you think of anyone you'd be interested in having me interrogate!!

By the way, I sell Real Estate in Los Angeles, so don't hesitate to contact me for any questions regarding the market here in Urban L.A.!

The Lazy Days of Summer

It's been over a week since my last blog post and it'd be easy for me to chalk it up to writer's block, but the real reason is more due to lack of motivation, distractions, excuses, etc. If I'm to be brutally honest, I just got lazy. Despite my efforts to crack it out of the park, sometimes the best laid plans are just an act in futility. Mine certainly were this week, which then lead me to think about what's worked best in the past and also ways that I can experiment now with building momentum and sustaining high energy. It then occurred to me that today is officially the first day of summer. Otherwise known as the Summer Solstice, June 21st is the longest day of the year, right before the beginning of shorter days and longer nights. For those who appreciate the significance of this seasonal shift, it can be thought of also as the energetic high point of the year and a perfect opportunity to re-align our intentions and strengthen our purpose. Now is the time to use the forces of nature, along with some good common sense to build your energy for the months ahead. In addition to keeping your attitude in check and dwelling on the positive, make sure you:

1. Drink lots of water!! I admit that I have a hard time with this one and often rely on a venti cup of decaf to serve as my liquid for the day. It's jut not enough. If you feel yourself tired or dragging in the middle of the day, drink a couple of glasses of water and chances are you'll bounce back. Remember: by the time you're thirsty, you're already dehydrated.

2. Get plenty of sleep. Huh? what? Yeah, this one is also a tough one for many of us, but the right amount of rest is critical to your overall health and energy levels. Not getting enough sleep zaps your immune system, makes you cranky and irritable, and generally lackluster. Cut out the caffeine, don't exercise late at night, and take some deep breaths to help you chill out before you hit the hay.

3. Eat properly. Smaller, frequent meals really are the way to go if you want to maintain your energy levels throughout the day. Try not to carbo load, but instead aim for well balanced meals that include protein, fat, and complex carbohydrates.

4. EXERCISE!! There really is no greater service that you can do for your body and mental health than to get moving. Training for a marathon isn't necessary, but a walk around the neighborhood once or twice a day is a great place to start. Aim for moderation and consistency, and your energy will sky rocket. If you are here in Los Angeles, the beautiful weather is a perfect excuse to take your work out outside. The L.A. Times points out some great local spots to get a killer workout in Thirteen Great Places to Run in L.A.

Speaking of exercise, if you are like me and tire of the gym and the commute time to get there and back, then you might want to consider an at home workout like P90X. Make no mistake about it- this is an extreme workout and you've got to be in decent shape to tackle it, but the results are noteworthy (if you follow a healthy diet) and you can't beat the convenience of rolling out of bed, right into your workout. The workout is lead by fitness guru, Tony Horton, and though mildly annoying, he really knows his stuff. Bring It!


Words of Wisdom from Tony Horton


With all my new found energy (and post P90X exhaustion), I'll be posting tomorrow with some new real estate updates as well as the announcement of a new video blog series (or two) that I've been meaning to get around to.

I sell Real Estate in Los Angeles, so don't hesitate to contact me for any questions regarding the market here in Urban L.A.!

Reining In a Horse Named Victim.

Recently and again, I've been faced with the challenge of balancing my energy, establishing priorities, and defending boundaries in my life. This week, specifically, I set off to re-work my business plan, tie up an abundance of loose ends, and otherwise make time for a social life without becoming a stumbling zombie. Let me be the first to tell you: it ain't no walk in the park.

For one, I am full of energy. So much so that I don't know what to do with it half the time. My thoughts and ambitions often wrap around one another, cannibalizing the best of my intentions and well-laid plans. I get distracted by all of my internal noise, exhausted by frenetic attempts to prioritize, and finally surrender in defeat, collapsing into apathetic blobbedness. This is usually just about the time that I begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel, pull myself up by my boot straps, and press on, for what other choice is there?

Actually, I've come to realize that there is always a choice, but it is our willingness to own our choices that allows us to shape the life we want to lead. Now I'm not saying that life doesn't throw us curve balls- we are dodging meteors nearly every moment of every day- but what we do have control over is the direction we point our rudders as the current of life directs us along our course. When the market continues to tank, the kids are screaming, or we are pressed beyond our comfort zone, we have full and total control over our reaction- the action of deciding how to perceive of our reality.

This notion is really quite liberating because it allows us some control, a solid framework to begin to uncover our best possible selves. From Tony Robbins to Wayne Dyer, any motivational speaker or self-help guru will tell you that it is all really mind over matter. For me, Proust said it best: The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes. In other words, instead of surrendering to hair-trigger impulses or running for the hills, we are better off to take a deep breath, decide how to best use our energies in reaction to the circumstance, and commit to the chosen path, without falter.

So just about the time I face planted into the proverbial wall this week, I remembered how much better off my life can be when I stop playing the victim, get focused, and decide to go in the direction of my dreams. No excuses, you've got to grab that horse by the reins!

I'm pleased to report that I'm now back in the saddle and am welcoming the bumps and hiccups along the ride because I know that I have the power to decide where the trail will end, at least in the hallway of my mind.

Maximize your energy, get clear on your priorities, and live authentically.

Oh, and by the way, I sell Real Estate in Los Angeles! Don't hesitate to contact me with any inquiries regarding the market in Urban L.A.

Wishful Thinking on the Long Road to Recovery?

Per the usual, I've been chatting it up with a number of REO agents, commercial brokers, and investors as we all swap information and opinions about where this never ending financial free fall will finally land us. Nothing new really, but a penchant for positive thinking and the slightest of positive indicators has everyone giddy with hope, still parched and delirious, but picking up the pace of the army crawl towards a mirage of economic recovery.

Meanwhile, “the housing recession is not over. Housing prices will continue to fall,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in Austin, Texas.

Other home-price indicators like the Case-Shiller Index have likely prematurely announced that real estate values are turning the corner. Since bank-owned foreclosure properties are included in calculating appreciation rates for the overall index, the numbers are skewed, as bank repos generally experience significant appreciation from bidding buyers in competition to pick up a bargain.

Humphries also indicated that:

• The second phase of the housing crash will begin when prices stop falling, but will amount to a long period of very slight price gains because of “shadow inventory” — or delinquent and foreclosed homes waiting to go on the market.
• More than one in five of the homes with mortgages are worth less than is owed on the loans. This, along with high unemployment rates (over 12% in California) will only continue to fuel the foreclosure crisis. We are not out of the woods yet!
  
• Surveys reveal that nearly 5.3 million homeowners are “sideline sellers” — homeowners waiting for the first signs of recovery before listing their homes for sale.
  
• The number of homes for sale is increasing. Though sales increased in April, there were also more new listings that month, offering more choice to buyers while keeping values at bay.
  
• It’s a myth that “tax credits saved our bacon in terms of the housing market.” The driving forces of accelerated movement in the market are really low pricing, low interest rates, and the fact that FHA loans are being leveraged in four out of every 10 transactions.
• Tax credits are leeching demand from future months, “and we’re going to pay for it in July and August.”

Zillow is now estimating that home prices still won't bottom out until some time this summer, and once we return to stabilization, no one should expect a quick bounce back: we're going to be in it for the long-haul with a slow and gradual return to former values over the course of years. Stay tuned!